African swine fever outbreak
Enforcement Action
In Effect
August 3, 2018
Summary
On 3 August 2018, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) confirmed the country’s first officially reported outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in domestic pigs, in Shenyang, Liaoning Province, and notified the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH). Mandatory control measures were immediately activated under China’s existing emergency animal disease framework, including compulsory culling of all pigs at infected premises and blanket depopulation of pigs within a 3 km zone around confirmed infected units, along with movement controls on live pigs and pig products. By August 2019, MARA data documented a 37.9–38.7% decline in the national live pig herd compared with August 2018 — a contraction of over 150 million animals from a pre-ASF census of approximately 428 million pigs. This record covers the initial 2018–2019 outbreak and herd collapse; the second ASF wave involving new variants in 2021 is documented in a separate Development record.
Background Context
Before August 2018, China was the world’s largest pig producer, with a census of approximately 428 million pigs combining large-scale commercial operations with extensive smallholder and backyard production. Pig populations were dense and animal movements frequent across provinces. ASF had been spreading across Europe and parts of Eurasia before 2018; China’s preparedness relied on generic transboundary animal disease frameworks without prior in-country ASF experience. The control framework activated in 2018 was based on the existing Animal Epidemic Prevention Law and national emergency plans for major animal diseases. The Cluster 5 variant concerns that precipitated the Danish mink cull (documented in a separate Development record) occurred in the same pandemic period but are unrelated to ASF.
System Impact
System Scale Direction
System Contraction
Type
Changes Scale
Significance
High
Between August 2018 and June 2019, MARA officially reported approximately 1.2 million pigs culled under ASF control orders. By August 2019, the national live pig herd had declined by approximately 37.9–38.7% compared with August 2018. China officially reported 176 ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs between 3 August 2018 and 21 April 2020, distributed across most of the 31 provincial-level regions, with outbreaks reported in all major pig-producing regions by the time the initial epidemic phase had been analytically demarcated. The mandatory control measures — compulsory culling at infected sites, blanket depopulation within 3 km zones, movement controls on live pigs and pig products, and inspection and disinfection at checkpoints — were implemented by local agricultural and veterinary departments at provincial, prefectural, and county levels under MARA direction. The herd contraction was associated with a pronounced reduction in pig supply and a corresponding increase in pig and pork prices, described in subsequent analyses as a “production shock” producing a “super hog cycle” in China’s pig market. Control measures also introduced enhanced surveillance, traceability requirements, and biosecurity standards as continuing operational conditions for the pig sector.
Anticipated Effects
If ASF control policies and enhanced biosecurity requirements continue as part of the long-term operating environment for Chinese pig production, the structural consolidation of the sector toward farms capable of meeting higher biosecurity standards would be expected to continue, potentially reducing smallholder and backyard production relative to large commercial operations.
After the initial herd collapse, the pig sector began rebuilding capacity with capital investment and structural changes; whether the national pig herd has returned to or exceeded pre-2018 levels depends on ongoing production data and is not established within the scope of this record, which covers the 2018–2019 outbreak and herd collapse only.
Some substitution toward other domestic protein sources and increased pork imports occurred during the supply shock period; whether this represents a durable shift or a temporary response to the 2018–2019 shock is not established within the scope of this record.
Significance Rationale
The development affects China’s national pig herd as a whole — the world’s largest at the time — rather than a regional subset, with a documented decline of over 150 million animals from a 428-million baseline within roughly one year. The associated supply shock generated price and market effects across domestic and international pork markets, supporting High significance.
Within The System
Key Actors
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) confirmed the initial outbreak on 3 August 2018, notified WOAH, and issued national control policies and technical guidance. Local agricultural and veterinary departments at provincial, prefectural, and county levels implemented culling, depopulation, movement controls, and surveillance. The General Administration of Customs implemented border controls aligned with ASF control measures. The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) received official outbreak notifications and published them in its World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS). Commercial pig companies, smallholder pig keepers, and slaughterhouses were directly subject to culling and movement restrictions. Research groups at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and collaborating institutions documented outbreak patterns and control measures in peer-reviewed publications.
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